Selecting biological control agents

Predicting direct non-target impacts

Modelling non-target impacts

What can be predicted?

These modelling approaches predict three aspects of the potential nontarget impacts of an introduced BCA: (1) the likely affect on nontarget population size or density from a given attack rate by an introduced BCA; (2) the likely seasonal timing of new BCA attack and how this may affect its impacts on nontarget species; and (3) the geographic locations where impacts are likely to be the greatest (see table). These approaches can also be applied to predicting the impacts of accidental introductions.

Characteristics of the impacts of a biological introduction that may be predicted by different modeling approaches. Brackets indicate areas where further research is required to demonstrate potential.
Characteristic	Attack rate and impact	Climate matching	Phenology models	Detailed population models
Magnitude of local impacts		()	()
Seasonal timing of impacts
Geographical location of greatest impacts	()			()

The availability of suitable data is probably the biggest constraint to using models for predicting the nontarget impacts of biological control introductions. The following table summarises some potential sources of data for parameterising the models discussed above.

Potential sources of data for parameterising models to predict the impacts of biological introductions. Brackets indicate where particular care should be taken in applying the data available.
Sources of data	Attack rate and impact	Phenology models
Scientific literature
Herbarium/collection records		()
Pre-release host range testing
Other quarantine studies	()
Ecological studies from the native/exotic range
Extrapolation from closely related taxa		()